This month we’re discussing what drove markets throughout August, including signs of strength in the US market, slow-progressing trade negotiations, and news out of emerging market economies.
US economic reports released in July showed increasing strength, breaking past the 2% real growth rate which has been somewhat of a norm since 2009. Real growth is up 2.8% in the past year, while real GDP growth in the second quarter alone grew at 4.1% annual rate which is its fastest pace since 2014. Wages and salaries are growing at its fastest pace in nearly a decade and, as a result, consumption numbers are also solid. The strong economic data can be attributed to tax cuts and increased government spending.
The story of June 2018 in the markets has been dominated by headlines surrounding global trade tensions. Other themes persist throughout the market such as rising interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and volatility in the financial markets.
In May we saw geopolitical risks continue to loom large and add to the volatility in global equity markets. Specifically, in the Eurozone. Italy is having difficulties forming a government and the rise of populist anti-euro parties are gaining momentum. This is causing concerns that Italy may leave the Euro and is adding more uncertainty to European markets.
The rising interest rate environment – along with geopolitical shifting – is still sparking volatility in global equity markets, with the largest impact felt on bonds and emerging market securities. Looking forward, we can expect more of this volatility, driven by geopolitical inconsistency and rising yields, but we do expect the solid economic data to continue driving growth forward. The ups and downs can seem hard to stomach, but this trend is becoming a new normal. With positive fundamentals guiding us forward, it’s worth the ride.
If you’re an investor, you know that the market is unpredictable. It can be great for months, only to suddenly drop before spiking back up once again. Over the past year, we’ve felt the shake of global events in our portfolios on several occasions, and understanding how these events affect our savings is important in keeping a clear head and persevering through the noise.
As expected, volatility is on the rise, most recently fueled by bargaining tactics and a clash of egos that are threatening to provoke a trade war between the two largest economies in the world. Global markets were shaken by the news in March, as we see reflected in increased volatility and a drop in equity markets.
In February, we saw a reintroduction of volatility in the market. The steep drops early in the month were partially clawed back as cooler heads prevailed, but that left many investors with chilly reminders of the recession of 2008. Despite the perceived similarities, we believe this situation is far from the economic fall 10 years ago, as stated in our letter to investors here. Having said that, we see higher volatility persisting in the near future. In this economic update, we’ll talk about why volatility is here to stay and how to manage it. First, let’s start with a note on the Canadian economy.
Global equity markets have had a solid start to the year, particularly outside of Canada. Even with the stronger Canadian dollar offsetting some gains, most developed markets still performed very well. Emerging markets have also kept a strong pace as the China’s response to tighter credit quieted doubters as the market has chugged along.
Looking back over the past year, global equites ended up performing stronger than most analysts predicted, consumer confidence improved, volatility was down, and central banks kept inflation in check. All in all, besides weakness in the US dollar and underperformance in Canada, portfolios had a very strong year.